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Chance
As a role player, whose fate has many a time rested on the roll of a die, I've had a lot of time to think about luck and chance. I don't believe in luck. Luck is superstitious, and just a bit silly. People aren't lucky, or unlucky. Dice aren't lucky or unlucky. Other peoples bad dice cannot contaminate my dice. Blowing on them before rolling won't make the results better. Don't get me wrong - I've obeyed these and other superstitions, it's part of the culture, it builds tensions, it's fun, but I don't really believe in them. I used to sit during games and roll dice repeatedly and record the results. In 4000 tallied rolls of a d20, I found that it was pretty much even - it rolled 2 through 19 all about the same number of times, and 1 and 20 considerably less often - but also about equally - a sign of imperfections in the die, not luck.
I also know, though, that in the short run, this isn't true. Sometimes, you get 5 20s out of 6 rolls. This would have been great if it had happened during game play - but instead, the same die that same evening rolled so many ones that my character was nearly rendered permanently insane. I believe this can happen even over very long terms - because occasionally, out of 1000 flips, you will get 700 or 800 heads - it's not common, but it can happen, and if it can happen, given millions of opportunities, it will happen. And monkeys will write Hamlet.
Which is to say, I believe that there are people who have things go well in general, and those who have things go poorly - simply because while most people will have it average out, every once in a while, just by chance, there will be people who generally have good results and generally have bad results. This can randomly change for no reason, too - events balance in the long term, not the short term.
All of which is leading up to the fact that I understand perfectly that it's random chance, and not at all bad luck, that I seem to be coming down with a nasty cough on top of everything else. ;) And that my prediction that a late frost would kill the flowers that sprang up over the last couple of weeks has nothing to do with the fact that it's snowing right now (normally, I like snow, and even now it can bring a smile to my face, but when I think of all those daffodils that were just starting spring up all over the place it makes me very sad, they're my fav flowers...).
Also, I've just wanted to post that explanation for a while. So far the only people I've pitched it denied it any validity, but I still think it makes sense. :)
I also know, though, that in the short run, this isn't true. Sometimes, you get 5 20s out of 6 rolls. This would have been great if it had happened during game play - but instead, the same die that same evening rolled so many ones that my character was nearly rendered permanently insane. I believe this can happen even over very long terms - because occasionally, out of 1000 flips, you will get 700 or 800 heads - it's not common, but it can happen, and if it can happen, given millions of opportunities, it will happen. And monkeys will write Hamlet.
Which is to say, I believe that there are people who have things go well in general, and those who have things go poorly - simply because while most people will have it average out, every once in a while, just by chance, there will be people who generally have good results and generally have bad results. This can randomly change for no reason, too - events balance in the long term, not the short term.
All of which is leading up to the fact that I understand perfectly that it's random chance, and not at all bad luck, that I seem to be coming down with a nasty cough on top of everything else. ;) And that my prediction that a late frost would kill the flowers that sprang up over the last couple of weeks has nothing to do with the fact that it's snowing right now (normally, I like snow, and even now it can bring a smile to my face, but when I think of all those daffodils that were just starting spring up all over the place it makes me very sad, they're my fav flowers...).
Also, I've just wanted to post that explanation for a while. So far the only people I've pitched it denied it any validity, but I still think it makes sense. :)
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Related game: list the traits of your ideal mate, estimate the probabilities of the traits, and multiply. Remember to adjust estimates for correlations/lack of independence between traits.
Two caveats: nasty cough might be neither chance nor "luck" but a result of too much stress or not enough sleep.
And there's been stuff on "real" luck: nothing mystical but playing the odds right. Like, leaving the house so random opportunities can happen to you, and having diverse experiences, ditto, and being alert and optimistic enough to then seize and exploit the opportunities.
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I get really fidgety during games, and I like to role dice. I originally did it by rolling up random characters (like generating D&D stats) and it moved on from there; I have page after page among my rping notes that are just tallies of dice rolls. ;)
And I thought about that with the sick - I've been getting enough sleep, but it could definitely be stress related, though I'm usually (ha!) luckier than that - I usually get sick after I'm done with deadlines, not before them...
:)
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Unless one believes there's some cosmic force balancing out good and bad. But, uh, *compares Dan Quayle and some African kid born with AIDS*.
role dice. "My d12 is a barbarian." :p
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And dang it, I've been trying so hard not to make the roll/role mistake, and then I went and did it...sigh...
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Ah well. Life goes on. ;)
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Feel better!